“Significance of March 15 in Talks: President Muizzu’s Role in India-Maldives Troop Withdrawal Negotiations”
The dispute between India and the Maldives has escalated as Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu has requested the withdrawal of Indian troops from a tourist island by March 15. While India asserts that the troops are stationed there for humanitarian aid and medical evacuations for remote island residents, this has become a source of tension since President Muizzu, known for his pro-China stance, took office.
According to reports, the deadline for the withdrawal of Indian troops from Maldives appears to be influenced by an upcoming election that holds importance for Muizzu’s People’s National Congress (PNC).
On January 14, Muizzu’s political party faced a defeat in the Male mayoral election against the Maldivian Democratic Party. The latter aims to uphold its relations with India.
Muizzu’s China visit coincided with a setback, skipping India. To solidify its control in the Maldives, the PNC must secure victory in the upcoming Majlis elections on March 17, just after the Indian troop withdrawal. Both Male and Delhi officials confirm the presence of 77 Indian soldiers and 12 medical personnel in the archipelago. Additionally, India has provided two helicopters and a Dornier aircraft for various operations.
In the inaugural meeting of the India-Maldives core group, Maldivian representative Ali Naseer urged Indian High Commissioner Munu Mahawar to replace defense personnel with civilians by March 15. Delhi’s response is expected during the February discussions.
The two aircraft under Maldivian ownership, one Dornier aircraft and one OPV, have both been grounded, as reported by HT. Suspicions of an anti-India campaign have risen following Minister Muizzu’s recent visit to China, particularly fueled by derogatory remarks made by three Maldivian ministers about Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit to Lakshadweep.
The PM Modi government is concerned about Muizzu’s close ties with China, especially his decision to skip a visit to India. India has traditionally had strong relations with the Maldives, which relies on Delhi for essential supplies for its 500,000 population, including rice, vegetables, medicines, and humanitarian aid.
According to the Hindustan Times report, there are indications that the Maldives may turn to China to reduce its dependence on India. After Muizzu’s recent visit to China, he stated that Chinese President Xi Jinping assured him of China’s support in achieving the Maldives’ goals.
Muizzu may explore seeking assistance from Beijing to replace Indian assets with Chinese alternatives, facilitated by the Xi Jinping regime coordinating crews from private companies in Singapore. However, this decision could impose a significant financial burden of over $10 million on the economically struggling Maldives and Muizzu. Maldives’ debts to China and India constitute 30% and 10% of its GDP, with a $100 million repayment obligation to India this year. The strategic location of the islands along a crucial maritime trade route in the Indian Ocean, responsible for nearly 80% of China’s oil imports, adds geopolitical significance. Consequently, any potential Chinese military presence in Maldives would be perceived as a threat by India in its regional sphere of influence.
